27 Oct 2019

ILLINOIS- The voting patterns since 1994 are a clear testament that Batswana need a change of regime. This is an undisputed fact. But each time Batswana are thirsty to participate in this transformation, a major development blocks them. Many theories have been bandied around.

One day, I will write about these theories and have each of them tested out to get to the findings. The context of this instalment is to help fellow citizens appreciate why, once again, in a hotly contested election that showed “puso e ile” narrative, has the Botswana Democratic Party given the opposition bloc a rout.

 

Numbers

The BDP garnered 38 out of 57 seats, the Umbrella for Democratic Change got 15, the Botswana Patriotic Front received three and the Alliance for Progressives netted one. That is an overwhelming majority for the ruling party as it retains her seat to govern and lead Botswana for another five-year period. It is also a push-up for the popular vote with significant margins in some areas, specifically in the greater Gaborone area.

 Netting 66.66 % of the total seats in parliament has surely secured the BDP’s victory way above the 50 % threshold as provided for in the constitution. It must be noted that 14 out of the 15 parliamentary seats in this year’s election went specifically to the Botswana Congress Party of the UDC.

This is very important to underscore at the start of everything else. This background is critical in helping those who may be struggling with the loss of the UDC to come to grips with why such a dismal performance in an election that was likely to go inside their bag.

In my recently published book; Wrestling Botswana Back from Khama, I authoritatively demonstrate that the last decade (01 April 2008 to 31 March 2018), Botswana was saved by the robust and fearless privately-owned press on one hand, and on the other hand, by the three reverberating voices of the opposition, mainly Dick Bayford, Duma Boko and Dumelang Saleshando. The harshest of critiques of the monocracy that came to manifest itself came from these men, who literally laid their lives down to defend democracy against erosion by one strongman.

As human rights lawyers, between Bayford and Boko, they represented a significant number of cases, some taken on pro bono grounds just so to attain natural justice for those that Khama wronged and violated. Boko was entrusted to steer the ship of the main opposition party that was poised to dislodge the ruling party from power.

 The nation rallied behind this royal blue machine because of the deep belief in dethroning the BDP at the next election. The narrative was consistent and headed in the direction that masses understood it.

 

Change of baton

As is constitutional, Ian Khama stepped down. He passed the baton into the hands of his successor. All-party Conference was resuscitated and for the first time, all political leaders including of the ruling party shared a moment to talk about Botswana. Mokgweetsi Masisi was seen by the opposition as a better leader than Khama. That was not to last as hardly a month in office, Masisi introduced major changes including the firing of the widely feared Isaac Kgosi.

The narrative changed. Khama went for Masisi and the public spat that was the daily show that increased the sales of our national newspapers would last until the next election.

 This duel excited the members of the opposition, but most certainly the head of the organization. Duma Boko started saying things that shook the core beliefs of the umbrella.

But Boko has the charm of speech. After protracted discussions within the stable of the UDC where clearly, members of the lime party were openly disgruntled and wanted to go solo, Boko prevailed over Dumelang Saleshando who was his subordinate going into this election.

Dumelang Saleshando had to calm down the likes of Taolo Lucas who saw the fraternizing with Khama not only as immoral but one that would bring the UDC flat on its face when numbers are all tallied up.

To show control of the party and prove calm to the cynical observer of happenings inside the umbrella, all was rosy and Khama was a strategic partner whose populism would pull crowds to the people’s project. Especially in the central area of Botswana with close to 19 seats of the BDP, the UDC saw the Khama magic working in their favour.

 

Miscommunication

When the ordinary members of the UDC asked how come the BPF was fielding candidates where they; too, had theirs, the leadership provided unconvincing answers that there was no written agreement with the BPF.

 Honestly, how then was the BPF helping the UDC garner the numbers needed to overpower the BDP? Now that the common belief between Boko and Khama was that the BDP government should be dislodged from power against all odds, their agreement was as good as their divergence because while UDC believed wholeheartedly that the BDP was moribund and should be annihilated wherever it had fielded candidates, Khama believed CAVA was the problem and that was because the leader was “power-drunk” who should be discarded.

 Khama made Masisi his target and if he had succeeded, he could return or have someone to recalibrate the BDP to what he knew it to be.

But that was not what Boko held to be true. He believed the BDP as an institution was obsolete and should be replaced because its leadership completely lost the plot. From Sir Seretse Khama to Mokgweetsi Masisi, in Boko’s view, they were the same!

 

Messaging

It was obvious that these two leaders; Boko-Khama were having a communication gap, still they did not sit down to gain alignment. Meanwhile, the masses of the UDC saw this. Sooner than later, it would be repeated that Saleshando was a lamb pulled to the sacrifice and was not quite there with the flirting between these two men.

Saleshando senior would make a public commentary to wash off the hands of the BCP in a subtle manner. While it was dismissed as hogwash that Saleshando junior was sacrificed, the alliance with Khama continued to play out in the minds of a sceptical lot of the voters who identified with the UDC project, and it is obvious when one looks at the voting patterns where the BDP was punished for her transgressions that those voters likely endorsed a member of the UDC provided he was pro-BCP.

The presidential debate was the crescendo of the messaging that the UDC carried for Batswana.

The presidential candidates went there not to present an academic exercise on linguistic properties and criticism. It was simple and straightforward.

Break down the manifesto into practical step-by-step action plan to deliver services to the voters. But Boko missed the flight.

In denouncing the ruling party, which was his main focus and duty as the leader of opposition, he took it way too far by branding the pioneers with all epithets (Mathinthinyane, Magogajase, Rankurate, Setlhodi and Rankoborwane). In front of two million viewers? Those watching him suddenly lost the message about 100, 000 jobs, the 13th cheque and P3000 living wage which are beautifully packaged in their manifesto.

They heard and saw empty promises of an ill-mannered leader. They heard and felt the insults of men they have embraced with so much respect as with deep honour. This was happening at the eleventh hour and the election was the following week.

 Any attempt to contextualize the ramblings and outbursts only intensified the insults in the minds of listeners and the more radio interviews he held, the worse it got for him even in his calm demeanour to unpack the message in those name-calling taunts.

 

Resources

The campaign funding wagged tongues of those inside the UDC. They leaked all kinds of versions, true or fabricated, the press reported hefty amounts by external forces with business interests in Botswana.

The veracity of such reports remains another topic for the future, but the truth is that the UDC was resourced enough to sustain its campaign. Amidst the abundance, the very members of the umbrella were sharing concerns that sponsorship was centred on the leader and little went to empower every candidate in the race. The last of the launches was indeed Boko’s and the setup told the large sums of money that went into the event. It was nothing common. The place was royal blue.

 What has never convinced me about the large crowd as being indicative of the numbers that would vote for Boko was that the few friends I have on Facebook who are pro-BCP and posting about this event are not residents of Gaborone Bonnington North. In every 10 of these friends, as their timeline got updated, it was clear that the whole Botswana came to witness their president launched and that it was never the voters in that area.

But the story sold to our unsuspecting media was that the crowd was what would send Boko to parliament. They deceived themselves to downplay the hurt and damage that the presidential debate would cause the UDC.

Finally, it was at this event where Duma Boko for the first time, made a confession about Zunaid Moti as his younger brother who has been funding him.

It was not an event for questions and comments or any of those members would have sought clarifications, not just that; this was breaking news on the eve of an acrimonious election, in which every member had been drilled into denying and dismissing the idea of ever receiving finance from external forces, and that they blindly and religiously obliged.

Locating themselves between the rock and a hard surface, members of the UDC could not dismiss these two events from a very recent past: denigrating descriptions of pioneers and the admission to the ZM financing.

 These played out in their minds as they prepared to vote. But these are loyal members who desperately needed a change of regime and therefore, could not afford the ruling party a chance.

 

What did they do?

Members found themselves wondering how many hideous secrets they may not know about regarding Boko as their leader. It became a credibility issue at this very late moment. Boko was primarily shaken off by the BCP and then the BNF and the BDP members in those areas where their candidates would have committed transgressions to elicit punishment made sure they voted the UDC where it fielded the BCP representative.

Batswana still need a regime change, but they won’t dislodge the BDP for the sake of change if they can’t trust the leadership with the care of their welfare for five years. Put simply, if the UDC was led by Dumelang Saleshando going into the elections, minus Khama and Moti, we could be talking a different story right now. ENDS